US Open Upset Alert? Nakashima vs. de Jong: Odds & Prediction!

The 2025 US Open is heating up, and one Round of 128 matchup has caught the attention of tennis fans and bettors alike: Brandon Nakashima (ranked No. 31) versus Jesper de Jong (ranked No. 83). Scheduled for Sunday, August 24th, this hard-court battle promises an intriguing clash of styles and potential for an upset.

Nakashima the Favorite, But Can de Jong Surprise?

Brandon Nakashima enters the match as the clear favorite, with odds of -325 compared to de Jong's +240 (courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook). This translates to an implied probability of 76.5% for Nakashima to secure the victory. However, tennis is a sport where anything can happen, and de Jong will be looking to defy the odds.

Nakashima's Hard Court Prowess

Nakashima boasts a solid 14-10 record on hard courts this year. His serve is a significant weapon, winning 79.7% of his service games on the surface. He also converts 32.5% of his break points, placing him among the top players in that category. However, his recent loss to Alexander Zverev at the Western & Southern Open might give de Jong some confidence.

De Jong's Underdog Spirit

Jesper de Jong has a 6-2 record on hard courts in 2025. While his break point conversion rate is slightly lower than Nakashima's (32.8%), he holds his serve consistently, winning 79.6% of his service games. He will be looking for his first tournament win on a hard court this year. While he lost in the quarterfinal of the Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag, he'll be aiming to improve his performance on the big stage of the US Open.

Prediction

While Nakashima is the favorite based on ranking and odds, de Jong has the potential to make this a competitive match. Nakashima's experience and hard-court record give him the edge, but de Jong's resilience and determination could lead to a surprise. Expect a hard-fought battle with Nakashima ultimately prevailing, but not without a challenge from the underdog de Jong.