Texas GOP Gambles on Latino Gains: Will Redistricting Pay Off?
Texas Republicans are betting big on their recent gains with Latino voters as they implement newly approved redistricting maps. The GOP hopes these maps will solidify their advantage and potentially flip two Democratic-held seats in the Rio Grande Valley. This strategy comes after President Donald Trump's urging to redraw congressional districts in Texas, mirroring California Democrats' attempts to counter Texas's influence.
Redistricting Risks and Rewards
Both Texas and California have approved new maps aimed at securing up to five more favorable US House districts for the parties pushing the changes. However, these maps are not yet guaranteed, as they face legal challenges. In California, voters must also approve overriding the previous maps established by the state's independent redistricting commission.
If these maps are implemented, they could reduce the number of battleground House districts in the 2026 midterm elections. Despite this, both states are still expected to have several competitive races where demographic shifts or changes in Trump's popularity could influence the outcomes.
The Trump Factor and Latino Voters
Republicans are hoping that the significant gains they made with Latino voters during Trump's tenure will continue. This trend could enable them to win two Democratic-held seats in the Rio Grande Valley. However, they face the challenge of unseating two Democratic incumbents with a track record of outperforming their party: Rep. Henry Cuellar in the Laredo-based 28th District and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th District, which now extends from Brownsville to Corpus Christi.
Turnout in midterm elections tends to be lower than in presidential years, making it difficult to predict the 2026 outcomes based on the 2024 election, where Trump attracted a large number of infrequent voters. The success of the Texas GOP's strategy hinges on maintaining and expanding their support among Latino voters in the face of these challenges.