Novo Nordisk's Obesity Drug Faces Investor Skepticism! What's Happening?
Colaboradores
Shares of Novo Nordisk experienced a dip, falling as much as 3.5% on Monday, following the release of detailed trial data for its experimental obesity drug, CagriSema. The data has sparked investor concerns regarding CagriSema's competitiveness against rival Eli Lilly's promising obesity treatment pipeline.
Novo Nordisk unveiled the complete results from two late-stage trials of CagriSema on Sunday. One trial involved individuals with obesity or overweight, while the other focused on overweight individuals with type 2 diabetes. The results indicated primarily mild-to-moderate side effects and positive effects on blood sugar levels. However, despite these results, investors remain unconvinced, as analysts had anticipated prior to the data release.
Jefferies analysts characterized the updates as merely "incremental" and highlighted concerns regarding tolerability. CagriSema was reported to cause slightly more nausea compared to both Novo's highly successful obesity injection, Wegovy, and Lilly's competing therapy, Zepbound. This increased nausea is raising questions about patient compliance and overall market appeal.
Adding to the uncertainty, CagriSema is not projected to launch until early 2027, which Markus Manns, a shareholder in both Novo and Lilly, described as "a long time interval for investors." This extended timeline allows Lilly to further solidify its position in the burgeoning obesity market.
Manns also noted that sentiment surrounding Lilly has been boosted by data presented at the American Diabetes Association's annual meeting in Chicago. The data revealed no safety issues in a mid-stage trial of Lilly's oral weight-loss candidate, orforglipron, in individuals with diabetes. Late-stage obesity data for orforglipron is expected in the third quarter, potentially giving Lilly another advantage.
"Novo’s status has clearly changed from being the obesity leader to a fast follower," Manns stated, reflecting the shifting landscape of the obesity drug market. CagriSema is crucial to Novo's strategy to compete with Lilly in this market, which analysts predict could exceed $150 billion annually by 2030.
Novo had initially positioned CagriSema as a more effective successor to Wegovy. However, the headline trial results published in December 2024, which showed an average weight loss of 22.7%, fell short of market expectations, contributing to the current investor skepticism.