South African motorists, brace yourselves! The festive season is about to get a little more expensive as fuel prices are expected to rise in December. According to reports from Cape {town} Etc, citing data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) and BusinessTech, both petrol and diesel are heading for an increase next week.
Why the Hike?
Throughout November, fuel under-recoveries persisted, primarily driven by rising global oil prices that outweighed the slight strengthening of the rand. The CEF indicates an under-recovery of between 20c and 26c per litre for petrol and a more significant shortfall of 76c to 93c per litre for diesel.
Projected Price Adjustments for December:
- Petrol 93: +19c to +20c per litre
- Petrol 95: +24c to +26c per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): +60c to +72c per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): +77c to +89c per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: +68c per litre
These increases follow welcome cuts in November of 51c for petrol and 21c for diesel, offering a temporary reprieve that is now set to be reversed.
Global Factors at Play
Global oil prices have been particularly volatile in November, with Brent crude averaging $64.14 per barrel. This volatility is attributed to shifting supply expectations and increased winter heating demand in the northern hemisphere, which typically exerts upward pressure on diesel prices. While the rand briefly strengthened, its positive impact was overshadowed by the larger under-recovery caused by rising international production costs.
Despite the upcoming hike, the inland price for 95 Unleaded (R20.54) in December remains approximately 26c lower than it was in January 2025. However, diesel continues to trend higher, with 50ppm expected to be roughly 55c more expensive than at the start of the year. Motorists are advised to plan accordingly and budget for these increased fuel costs during the holiday season.